Acta Structuralica

international journal for structuralist research

Journal | Volume | Article

236598

Synchronic bayesian updating and the sleeping beauty problem

reply to Pust

Terence Horgan

pp. 155-159

Abstract

I maintain, in defending “thirdism,” that Sleeping Beauty should do Bayesian updating after assigning the “preliminary probability” 1/4 to the statement S: “Today is Tuesday and the coin flip is heads.” (This preliminary probability obtains relative to a specific proper subset I of her available information.) Pust objects that her preliminary probability for S is really zero, because she could not be in an epistemic situation in which S is true. I reply that the impossibility of being in such an epistemic situation is irrelevant, because relative to I, statement S nonetheless has degree of evidential support 1/4.

Publication details

Published in:

(2008) Synthese 160 (2).

Pages: 155-159

DOI: 10.1007/s11229-006-9121-1

Full citation:

Horgan Terence (2008) „Synchronic bayesian updating and the sleeping beauty problem: reply to Pust“. Synthese 160 (2), 155–159.